AINTREE FESTIVAL - 10 YEAR TRENDS

A brief summary of key trends is detailed below for each race over the three day meeting - trends alone will not usually find winners but they may help you to draw up a shortlist and then use your own skill and judgement to find that elusive winner!. The figure after each race name/detail is the favourites win rate e.g. 5 wins in 10 years = 50%. The race order is set out as run in 2010 and apologies if this changes in 2011!

THURSDAY

3 Mile John Smiths Hurdle - Gr2 (42%); New race 2004 although all winners to date were 6yo (three wins) or 7yo (four wins) and finished in first four (within last 14-40 days) on last outing being well backed at 11/2 or shorter. H Daly & P Nicholls are the leading trainers with two wins (Mighty Man & Big Bucks). 

2M Juvenile Hurdle 4yo - Gr1 (60%); A last run at Cheltenham is a common feature. Very few other common trends although five of last six winners were favourites and had finished either 1st/2nd LTO at Cheltenham. A top jockey booking in this race may also be a good pointer. A King is the leading trainers on 2 wins.

3M 1F Totesport Bowl - Gr 2 (30%); Most winners last ran at Cheltenham in the festival - apart from Our Vic in 2008 no others won at the March festival thus this is largely a 'consolation' race for Gold Cup contenders or for those who missed the festival altogether. Only three winners ran worse than 5th on last completed outing. D Pipe has trained two of the last three winners whilst F Doumen also has 2 wins with First Gold.

2M 6F John Smiths Foxhunter Chase (15%); 9 of the last 10 winners had odds of 8/1 or shorter. A 1st/2nd place in either of last two starts appears a common theme apart from 2005.  All winners aged between 9-12 yrs. A strong jockey booking is also generally a very good pointer for this race. R Waley-Cohen is leading trainer with 2 wins.

2M John Smiths Red Rum Chase - Gr3 (40%); All winners aged between 6-9 yrs old. A last completed run finishing 5th or better was seen in all winners. All off track at least 12 days since last race. Lightweights carrying 10st 13lbs or less have won 8/10 races.

2M 4F 'Manifesto' Novice Chase - Gr 2 (n/a); New race in 2009. Both previous winners last ran 23 days earlier at Cheltenham and had finished 4th/5th in that race.

2M 4F Handicap Hurdle (10%); A very difficult finale with 8/10 winners having odds of 10/1 or greater. 6yo horses have won four of the last six races. Horses carrying 10st 13lbs or less have a slight advantage with 6/10 wins from this weight band. Leading trainer is J O'Neill with two wins.

FRIDAY

2M Top Nov Hurdle - Gr 2 - (10%); P Hobbs is leading trainer with 2 wins albeit last was in 2002. A 1st/2nd place in either of last two completed races appears essential. 5yo are the preferred age group with 7/10 wins. All rested at least 24 days since last run.

3M 1F Mildmay Nov Chase - Gr2- (30%); 9/10 winners had finished 1st/2nd on either of last 2 outings. All also last raced within the last 58 days. P Nicholls & N Henderson are the leading trainers on 2 wins.

2m 4f Melling Chase - Gr 1 - (45%); Several dual winners seen but no triple winners - Albertas Run will be bidding for the double if he runs this year. Last ten winners were placed 4th or better in last completed race with only two having odds higher than 5/1. 5 of last 9 winners trained in Ireland. 

2M 6F John Smiths Topham H/Cap Chase (10%); Three of the last five winners were seemingly out of form with nothing better than 5th place on last four starts. All last ran within 58 days. 9 of last 10 winners carried 10st 12lbs or less. Only two winners seen with SP's below 10-1 thus often best looking for some value in this 28-30 runner field.

3M Sefton Nov Hurdle - Gr1 - (20%); Only Chief Dan George in 2007 had finished worse than 4th in last outing and most had finished 3rd or better on at least 4 of last 5 races. All also last ran 12-48 days earlier. Jonjo O'Neill is leading trainer on 2 wins. Interestingly the past race winners have rarely gone on to shine at the March Festivals in subsequent years - Chief Dan George being the most recent exception.

3 Mile H/cap Hurdle - (30%); All winners carried 11st or less.8/10 winners finished 6th or better in last 'completed' race. Jonjo O'Neill is leading trainer with 4 wins. Recent winners include Albertas Run and Time For Rupert who have both gone on to run well at Cheltenham Festivals.

2m 1f Mares NH Flat Race Listed (16%); New race in 2005. All winners finished 4^th or better LTO. 4yo appears to be the preferred age group with 4/6 wins to date with 5yo winning the other races. Two of the last three winners were sent off at odds of 25/1+ even though they had won their only previous start.

SATURDAY 

2M 4F Mersey Nov Hurdle Gr2 (15%); All winners had run 1st/2nd/3rd in either of last two outings with 5&6 year olds having best record with 8/10 wins between them. All winners off track at least 16 days but none more than 47 days. P Nicholls has trained 3 winners - all ridden by Ruby Walsh and having odds of 9/2 or shorter.

2M Maghull Nov Chase - Gr1- (30%); P Nicholls is top trainer with 4 wins A 1st/2nd place in either of last two completed runs is a common factor.  All winners last raced some 18-71 days earlier. Longest SP seen since 2001 was 6/1.

2M 4F Aintree Hurdle - Gr1- (15%); Irish runners have taken 6 of last 8 races. Frequently won by a horse that last ran at the Festival at Cheltenham with triple winner Al Eile bucking this trend (trainer by J Queally). Apart from the 2005 winner the remainder finished 5th or better on their last completed race. Oldest winners since 2001 were aged 8 years.

3M 1F H/cap Chase (20%); Jonjo O'Neill is leading trainer with 3 wins with N Henderson next best with 2 wins.Of the O'Neil winners Dont Push It went on to win the Grand National the following year.  8/10 winners were placed 6th or better in last completed race.

4M 4F Grand National Gr 3 (25%); Irish trained runners have taken 4 of last 10 races. No winner has carried more than 11st 5lb and that was a new weight carrying feat by Dont Push It in 2010 being the highest weight carried for over 25 years. Lowest weight carried since 2001 was 10st 4lbs (Bindaree). A last run 20-49 days earlier appears essential. In terms of age groups 9&10yo seem best having won 7/10 races since 2001. Only two winners since 1989 had not completed the race in its previous outing and all but two of the other winners since 2001 had finished 5th or better on last completed race. Other stats to watch out for include: A win over 3m or further, winner of a race worth £18k+ and a rating of 136-148. 

2M H'cap Hurdle (Cond/Amat Jockeys) (n/a); New race in 2009. Both winners to date last raced 22 days earlier  and both carried a weight of 11st 5lbs or more. Odds of 11/1+ seen for both.

2M John Smiths Champion NH Flat Race Gr2 (22%); A 1st/2nd run in either of last two outings appears essential. 6 of last7 winners also had SP's of 14/1 or greater so not the best 'getting out stakes' race to close the festival. 5&6yo age group preferred with 8/9 wins between this age group.