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2.10 - 2m 1f Juv Hurdle for 3yo (0%): We are still waiting for the first winning favourite since this race commenced in 2005 so supporters of much hyped horse Frankalino may not be getting great value about this 4/6 shot! However all past winners had odds of 12/1 or shorter thus main rivals appear to be Pena Dorada and Ibn Hiyan. Previous winners were either unraced under NH rules or had just one previous start finishing 2nd/3rd. The only trainer to win the race before and has a runner today in T Easterby - however this does not seem to have the flat form to trouble the principals today. Apart from the three horses mentioned above I'd expect Stags Leap to finish closer to Pena Dorada over this flatter track with the 5lbs pull in the weights from when the horse was beaten by 22l at Kelso. My conclusion is that the King and Murphy newcomers may fight out the finish.
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2.45 - 2m 4f Nov Chase (60%): Only 4 runners so hopefully easier to find the winner here than in the opener! The five past winners all had odds of 9/2 or shorter and all had won on their seasonal re-appearance. On this basis the race seems to be between Adams Island and Wishfull Thinking.
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3.20 - 3m H/cap Hurdle (11%): P Bowen has won the race twice before and today sends out Markington who is easy to back at 12/1 after a couple of poor runs (the latest pulled up was after only just one flight so clearly something was amiss that day). In the horses favour is that the trainer also won the handicap hurdle here yesterday and also the horse put in its highest rated performance at the track in June. Solway Sam won the bumper here 12 months ago and is clearly in good heart and one to consider. Past winners had all finished 6th or better on their last completed race.
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3.55 - 2m H/cap Chase (25%): Tramantano has won the race for the last two years for trainer N Twiston-Davies so clearly has to be one for the short list today. Indeed the early betting suggests the horse will start as favourite and is off a mark similar to previous wins. Given the favourites moderate record in the event another key trend is the age of the winners - all four past winners were aged 7 or older - and of these Ockey De Neulliac may fare best.
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4.30 - 2m 4f Nov Hurdle (33%): J O'Neill has won the race 3 times before with horses ridden by AP McCoy so Castlerock from the stable must be worth a second look. However the stable's previous winners were all past winners and were very well backed at odds of 15/8 or shorter so today's price of 11/1 suggests that a place is the best potential outcome notwithstanding the defection of 3 of the fancied runners in the race. Only one of the last nine winners had odds greater than 13/2 thus on this criteria the race would appear to be between Nicene Creed and Cue Card.
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5.05 - 2m 1f NH Flat race (40%): Whilst not ruling out Trevor Hemming's Herdsman it is worth pointing out that the two previous winning favourites in this race had already won a bumper whereas today's favourite is making its début Only run 5 times before with several surprise winners at odds of 14/1, 33/1 and 50/1. The only past winning trainer with a runner today is Miss L Harrison who saddles Solway Pete - her past winner was however making its third racecourse appearance having finished 1st and 3rd prior to winning here. Of those with past runs in bumpers all three had won at least one of their races thus Tale of Tanganiyka cannot be totally dismissed. Of the newcomers Charminster is highly regarded by the stable and Old Wigmore is expected to do well this term. A final factor is that conditional jockeys have ridden 4 of the 5 previous winners and using this criteria Charminster again stands out whilst an outsider to consider is Swallow.
