SUNDAY 25TH JULY

Just four of todays races have been run at least 3 times before - they are:

• 1.50 - 5f Maiden for 2yo (55%): Seven of the past nine winners had finished 4^th or better on their last run. Drawfacts: Low 45%, Middle 33%, High 22%.

• 3.00 - 7f Handicap (5%): Historically this has been a very open race. Ages of past winners has ranged from 4-8 years. Highest weight carried by winners has been 9st 12lbs. A last run some 5-44 days earlier was also a common factor. Trainer to watch: P Green (won 2009). Drawfacts: Low 22%, Mddle 22%, High 56%.

• 4.10 - 5f Handicap for 3yo (33%): Only run three times since restricting to 3yo horses. All 3 winners had finished 4^th or better on last start (within last 15-51 days). Also all carried a weight of between 8st 7lbs & 9st 5lbs. Drawfacts: Low 33%, Middle 67%.

• 5.20 - 1m 1f Handicap for 3yo (50%): Race run 8 times before with last seven winners finishing either 1st/2^nd on at least one of last two runs. No past winner had been off the track for more than 40 days and no winner carried less than 8st 3lbs. Drawfacts: Low 50%, Middle 12%, High 38%.

 MONDAY 31ST MAY

• (2.20) 5f Maiden for 2yo (Fav 63%): All eight past winners were well backed at odds of 4/1 or shorter. 3/8 winners were making their racecourse debuts whilst all others had finished 5^th or better on their last race. Drawfacts: Low 0%, Middle 50%, High 50%. Trainer to watch: M Johnston (won in 2005, 2006 & 2008).

• (2.55) 6f Handicap (Fav 0%): All eight past winners were aged between 4-6 years with 4yo winning the last 4 times. All but one winner had last raced within 19 days. Drawfacts: Low (37%), Middle (0%), High (63%). Trainer to watch: D Nicholls (won 2000 & 2003).

• (4.40) 5f Handicap (Fav 0%): Usually a trappy race to find the winner with all 7 past winners havind SP's of 7/1 or higher with the last 4 winners all 12/1+ . All winners had last raced within 39 days. Drawfacts: Low (42%), Middle (0%), High (58%).

• (5.15) 1m 1f Handicap (33%): Only run 6 times before with all winners finishing 6^th or better on last run (all within the last 43 days). The draw may be influential here with 4/6 winners coming from one of the two highest stalls. Drawfacts: Low (0%), Middle (33%), High (67%).

TUESDAY 18TH MAY
 
This is a new meeting for 2010 so no past trends are available.

EASTER SATURDAY
 
Just four races today that have been run at least three times before - they are:

(2.50) 3m H/cap Chase (21%): All seven past winners carried 10st 9lbs or more and all had finished 6th or better on at least one of last two races. All were aged between 6-10 years and had last run within the last 45 days. No major surprises in the race with all winners odds being 10-1 or shorter. Trainers to watch: AM Hales (won in 2009 with Antonius Ceasar who is also entered this year), C Grant (2008), Mrs SJ Smith (2006),  Ms V Williams (2005).
(3.25) 3m 2f H/cap Chase (0%): No favourite has won this race before. Past winners had all finished 6th or better on their last completed race (all having run in the last 37 days). Ages of winners all between 7-11 years. Highest winning weight seen was 11st 9lbs with all but one carrying 11st 2lbs or less.
 
 (5.00) 2m H/cap Chase (30%): Run five times before with all winners so far aged between 6-8 years. They had all finished  either 2nd/3rd/4th on last start (within last 13-41 days). Lowest weight carried by winners was 10st 8lbs.
 
(5.35) 3m Open Hunter Chase (20%): All five previous winners were aged between 8-10 years. Three of the last four winners were making their seasonal debuts under NH rules (excludes PTP races).

FRIDAY 26TH MARCH
 
Just one race today which has been run at least 3 times before:
 
(2.45) 3m Nov H/cap Chase (20%): All 5 previous winners carried a weight of 11st 6lbs or lower. All had been rested at least 10 days since last run. A 3rd place or better on last completed race was seen for all past winners.

Sunday Mar 21st
 
Just three races today that have been run at least three times before - they are:

(3.00) 2m4f Beginners Chase (16%): Only 3 previous races with all winners well backed at odds of 7/2 or shorter. All 3 had finished 3rd on last start with all running in the last 25-42 days. Ages of wimmers all between 6-8 years.
 
(3.35) 3m Novice Chase (33%): Again just run 3 times before with all winners at odds of 10/3 or shorter. All had finished 1st/2nd on last completed race and all had last run within last 27 days.
 
(5.15) 2m1f NH Flat Race (80%): All past winners had raced just once before. Of the 5 previous races all were won by either a 4 or 5 year old horse. Clearly a good favourites race with all winners odds at 9/1 or shorter. Trainers to watch: D McCain Jr (won 2007), Ms J Candlish (2006).

 THURSDAY MAR 11TH
 
(2.10) 3m1f Nov Hurdle (33%): Of the last five winners one was making its NH debut whilst all the others had finished either 1st/2nd on last completed race. Youngest last winner aged 6 years with 3/6 winners aged 6 yrs. Trainer to watch: JH Johnson (won 2008).
 
(2.40) 2m4f Nov Hurdle (50%): All six previous winners were well backed at odds of 4/1 or shorter having finished 4th or better on at least one of last two races. 6yo horses have a good record again having taken 4/6 runnings of the race. Trainer to watch: JH Johnson (won 2006), N Richards (2004).

(3.15) 2m4f Beginners Chase (33%): Only three past races so trends are less robust. A common theme to date has been that all past winners finished 2nd or better on at least one of last three starts. Also none had been off the track for more than 59 days with oldest winner to date aged 10 years.

(3.45) 3m2f H/cap Chase (14%): Lowest weight carried by a past winner was 10st 8lbs with all winners also aged between 8-10 years. Another common trend has been that none have been rested for more than 47 days since their last race. Trainer to watch: Mrs SJ Smith (won in 2009, 2008 & 2005).
 
(4.50) 2m H/cap Chase (28%): Highest weight carried by past winner was 11st 11lbs. A common trend with all seven past winners was that they had all previously run between 6-29 days earlier with all running at least twice in current season. Trainer to watch: FP Murtagh (won 2005 & 2006).
 
(5.20) 2m1f NH Flat Race (58%): With 4/6 winning favourites (one joint fav) it may appear best to focus just on the well backed horses but with the other two winners having odds of 40/1 and 50/1 it can also pay to look for an outsider 'with potential' as well. The last two winners were making their racecourse debuts but of the rest they had all finished 5th or better on last start and all were still maidens. Trainers to watch: JH Johnson (won 2006), Ms SE Forster (2005) and N Richards (2004).
 

MONDAY FEB 22ND
 
If the weather relents hopefully this meeting will take place! Here are the races run at least three times in the last 10 years albeit this meeting has been badly affected by the weather in the past and the temporary closure of the hurdles track will reduce the trends profile in those races.
 
(2.00) 2m4f Nov Hurdle (20%): Unusually for a non handicap the favourites record in this race has been quite weak albeit only one of the five winners had odds greater than 3/1. All past winners aged between 5-7 years (7yo have the best record with 3/5 wins) and had last raced some 13-44 days earlier. . Trainer to watch : D McCain Jr (won 2007).
 
(3.00) 2m1f H/cap Hurdle (0%): A blank race for favourites in the four previous runnings of this race. Past trends have favoured horses towards the bottom of the handicap. Other trends are that all past winners were aged 7 or older and all had been rested at least 13 days since last run. Conditional jockeys also fare well in this race having ridden 3/4 winners.
 
(3.35) 3m4f H/cap Chase (0%): Only three past races so trends are less robust. To date all winners were aged 7/8 years, finished 4th or better on last completed run and last raced some 27-45 days earlier. A weight at or below 11st 2lbs also carried by all previous winners.
 
(4.45) 2m4f H/cap Chase (30%): Race run over slightly longer trip last year but reverts to historic trip again today. The five previous winners had all finished 3rd or better on at least one of last two runs. A run within the last 80 days was also a common trend. Highest winning weight was 11st 9lbs. Trainer to watch: R Johnson (won 2007).

TRENDSETTERS GUIDE - FEB 10TH 2010

Previous race trends (2000-2009) can often help provide a shortlist of potential
winners in the current year's races where they have been run at least three times (all but the last race on the card). Hopefully these brief pointers will assist race goers at Carlisle today. The figure in brackets after the race details is the favourite's strike rate for the race. Trainers who have won the race before are also highlighted if they had an entry at the overnight stage.
 
(1.35) 2m1f Novice Hurdle (33%): All three past winners had finished 3rd or better on last run and had been rested at least 16 days since last outing. All were aged 5yrs.
 
(2.10) 2m4f Mares Novice Hurdle (33%): Again just three past races with all winners finishing 4th or better on last run (within 16-29 days). All winners aged between 5-7 years. Trainer to watch: A Crook (won 2006).
 
(2.45) 2m Handicap Chase (8%): Not a particularly kind race for favourites with just one joint fav winning in last six races. All winners carried 10st11lbs or more and had last raced some 18-43 days earlier. Trainer to watch: M Todhunter (won 2006).
 
(3.15) 2m Novice Chase (33%): All three past winners were aged between 6-9 years and all winners last raced some 11-94 days earlier.
 
(3.45) 2m1f Handicap Hurdle ((50%): All four previous winners finished 5th or better on last start having been rested at least 29 days since last run. All were aged between 6-10 years. Weight carried by past winners between 10st9lbs and 11st9lbs. No major shocks in the past with longest SP at 7/1. Trainer to watch: Mrs D Sayer 9won 2006).
 
 (4.15) 3m Nov Handicap Chase (0%): No winning favourite in the three past races although all winners were well backed at odds of between 7/2 and 4/1. All wre also aged either 6/7 years and carried a weight between 10st11lbs and 11st6lbs, A 1st/2nd place on either of last two runs was a common feature as was a previous run in last 25-60 days. Trainer to watch: C Grant (won 2008).
 
 

TRENDSETTERS GUIDE - Nov 29th

Previous race trends (1999-2008) can often help provide a shortlist of potential
winners in the current year's races where they have been run at least twice - hopefully these brief pointers will assist race goers at Carlisle today. The figure in brackets after the race details is the favourite's strike rate for the race. Trainers who have won the race before are also highlighted if they had an entry at the 5 day stage.

12.55 2m1f Novice Hurdle (50%); Six of the last 8 winners had odds of 5/2 or shorter so generally pays to watch the betting market. Half of the past winners came from the 4yo age group. Trainers to watch; JH Johnson (won 2005), NG Richards (2003).

1.25 2m4f Novice Hurdle (14%): Past races have been poor for favourites with all but one winner having odds of 7/1 or greater. The age group to follow has been 5yo horses with 5/7 wins. Apart from one unraced winner in 2005 the remainder had last run some 11-26 days earlier. Trainers to watch; JH Johnson (won 2007), JP Ewart (2005)

2.00 2m4f Novice Chase (63%): Six of the last seven winners had won their last race with the other finishing 3rd LTO. All past winners were aged 6/7 years with 6yo holding the sway. With a strong favourites record in the race it is not surprising to find that the last seven winners all had odds of 11/4 or shorter. Trainers to watch; JH Johnson (won 2007), Miss LV Russell (2004) and F Murphy (1999).

2.30 3m Handicap Chase (50%); Only run four times before with all winners aged 7/8 yrs with 7yo having the edge so far. No major shocks in this event with longest winning sp being 6/1. Highest weight carried by a winner is 11st 8lbs. Trainers to watch; J O'Neill (won 2007), JH Johnson (2004).

3.05 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (28%); All past winners were aged 7yrs or younger with all also rested at least 17 days since last run. Six of the last seven winners had finished 3rd or better on last completed run with three winners pulling up last time out. Trainers to watch; Miss SE Forster (won 2007), JH Johnson (2005).

3.35 2m4f (Amateur Riders) Handicap Hurdle (28%); All past winners had finished 5th or better on last outing. Oldest winner seen aged 9yrs. Whilst race often attracts a large field the longest winning odds seen were 10/1. Highest weight carried by past winners was 11st 3lbs. Trainers to watch; Miss SE Forster (won 2003), JH Johnson (2002), Mrs A Naughton (2001) and Mrs D Sayer (1999).


Information supplied by http://www.northernracingclub.com/CarlisleTrends.htm