Cartmel Trends

CARTMEL - AUGUST MEETINGS

THURSDAY 25TH AUGUST

All races tonight are being run for only the second time (new fixture in 2010).

SATURDAY 27TH AUGUST

1.35 - 2m 2f Nov Hurdle - New race in 2010.

2.05 - 2m 6f H/cp Hurdle - New race in 2010.

2.40 - 2m 6f Beginners Chase (25%): The race has been run since 2003 (8 times before). 6 & 7yo horses have the best record with 7/8 wins whilst all winners were aged 5-7 years. All past winners had come 4th or better on their last completed run.Longest winners odds were 8/1.

3.10 - 2m 6f H/cap Chase (50%): 8 out of 10 winners had finished 6^th or better on their last run whilst 7 out of 10 winners had carried a weight of 11^st 5lbs or more. Don't be put off by horses lacking a recent run as three of the last four winners had been rested at least 100 days since their last NH outing.

3.40 - 3m 2f H/cap Chase for the Cavendish Cup - new race in 2010,
4.15 - 2m 2f H/cap Hurdle for the Cartmel Cup (37%): Race first run in 2007 thus limited trends to date. All four winners were rested at least 13 days since their last run. Mrs D Sayer has won for the last two year's with Front Rank although that horse is currently entered in the selling hurdle on the Thursday.
4.55 - 2m 2f H/cap Hurdle for Conditional & Amateur jockeys - New race in 2010.

MONDAY 29TH AUGUST

2.20 - 2m 6f Nov Hurdle: New race in 2010

2.55 - 2m 2f Juv Nov Hurdle for 3yo (66%): All of the winning favourites had finished 3^rd or better on their last run over hurdles - the non favourites that won were all making their debuts under NH rules. Trainer to watch: GM Moore (won in 2005 & 2010) whose winners were both running oveer hurdles for the first time.

3.30 - 2m 2f Nov H/cap Chase (35%): All ten past winners had odds of 10/1 or shorter in what can be quite a difficult puzzle to solve. A 5^th placed run (or better) on last start is a fairly consistent trend throwing up 8/10 winners. All but one winenr of the race had a NH run within the last 44 days. Trainers to watch: D Burchell (won in 2002 & 2009) whose two winners had finished 2^nd or 3^rd in their last race and carried either 10st 13lbs or 11^st. D McCain Jr (won in 2007 & 2010) and similarly his winners were either 2nd/3rd on their last run bu carried between 11st 2lbs & 11st 3lbs.

4.05 - 3m 2f 'Cengiz (Gus) Sadik' H/cap Chase (4%): Trainer A Sadik usually tries to win this race (run in memory of his son) although he has manged this feat just once before in 2008 with Desert Tommy. No real shock winners of the race with all winner's odds being 10/1 or shorter notwithstanding the weak record of the race favourites. 7 of the 8 winners had finished 6^th or better on their last completed race.
4.40 - 2m 6f H/cp Chase - New race in 2010.

5.15 - 2m 6f H/cap Hurdle (33%): Race resumed in 2005 after a 6 year break. Of the last six winners all had finished 4^th or better on their last run and been rested at least 6 days. The last five winners were all ridden by a conditional jockey claiming a weight allowance.

5.50 - 2m 2f Nov Hurdle - New race in 2011.

Thursday 14th July

2.20 - 2m 6f Novice Hurdle (37%): Only one of the last eight winners had odds greater than 5/1. Similarly only one of the winners finished worse than 4th on their last run. Trainer to watch: E Williams (wion 2010).
2.50 - 2m 2f Beginners Chase (14%): Last year was the first winning favourite in the seven previous runnings of the race. Of these past winners five had finished 4th or better on their last start. Trainer to watch: JJ Lamber (won 2007).
3.25 - 2m 2f H/cap Chase (0%): The four previous runnings havefailed to yield a winning favourite with all winners odds 11/4 or greater. All of the past winners carried a weight of 11st 6lbs or more and all had a 4th place or better on at least one of last twi runs. All also rested at lease 15 days since their last NH run. Trainer to watch: JJ Lamber (won 2009).
4.00 - 3m 2f H/cap Chase (18%): All eight past winners carried at least 10st 5lbs although interestingly the last three winners all carried 11st 12lbs. Trainers to watch: P Bowen (won 2010), J O'Neill (2006).
4.35 - 2m 2f Maiden Hurdle (22%): Seven of the last nine winners had odds of 6/1 of shorter. All had previously raced over hurdles before. Trainers to watch: JJ Quinn (won 2006), C Grant (2004).
5.10 - 2m 6f H/cap Hurdle (60%): Although three out of five winners were favourites the last two winners were 6/1+ To date all were aged 6yo+ and were rested at least 15 days since their last NH run. A 5th place or better on at least one of last two runs was also seen. All carried a weight of 11st or more. Trainers to watch: E Wiliams (won 2007), J ONeill (2006).
5.40 - 2m 2f Nov H/cap Hurdle (25%): All past winners carried a weight of 10st 10lbs or more although of these only one carried less than 11st 2lbs. A poor last run was a common feature with all but one finishing 5th or worse on their last completed race. All rested at least 11 days since last NH run . Oldest winner to date aged 7 years.

WED 1ST JUNE

(2.20) - 2m 2f Nov Hurdle (22%): Longest winners SP was 10/1. 6/9 past winners finished 4^th or better on last run. 5&6yo have the best record with 7/9 winners from this age group.
(2.50) - 2m 6f Maiden Hurdle (40%): Only one winner had odds of more than 4/1. 5yo have the best record with 3/5 wins. All rested at least 14 days since last run.
(3.25) - 2m 2f H/cap Chase (16%): Only run 3 times before with all winners aged 9& 10 years. All last ran within 33 days.
(3.55) - 3m 6f H/cap Chase for 10yo+ (44%): 7/9 winners were aged 11 or 12yo. All rested at least 8 days since last run. Only 1/9 winners failed to finish 6^th or better on last completed run.
(4.30) - 3m 2f Hunter Chase (5%): A poor race for favourites with 3/9 winners odds being 14/1+ . Youngest winning horse aged 9 years with more experienced jockeys (with 5lbs or lower allowance) winning 6/9 races.
(5.05) - 2m 6f H/cap Hurdle (33%): 7/9 winners had odds of 11/2 or lower. A 6^th placed run or better was seen for all past winners since 2002. Only 1/9 winners had been rested for more than 35 days.
(5.35) - 2m 2f (CJ) H/cap Hurdle (27%): Ardesia won here on Saturday and bides to repeat its dual wins at last May's meetings. A word of caution however as no horse has won back to back wins in the race in the last 20 years. 8/9 winners had odds of 8/1 or shorter.

SATURDAY 28TH MAY

(6.00) 2m 6f Nov Hurdle ( Fav 66%): Only run 6 times before with all winners odds being 4/1 or shorter. Past winners had all finished 3^rd or better on last run. Ages of winners to date have all been 4/5/6 years with 5yo having the best record so far with 4/6 wins.
(7.05) 2m 6f H/cap Chase (50%): Again race run just 6 times before. All past winners finished 3^rd or better on their last completed race and all had run within the last 21 days. Oldest winner to date has been 10yrs although 8yo have the best record with 3/6 wins to date.
(7.40) 3m 2f H/cap Chase (35%): This time the race has been run 7 times before. Past winners had all finished 6^th or better on their latest completed run. All winners aged between 6-10 years.

(8.15) 2m 2f Nov Chase (0%): Only run 3 times before but no winning favourite yet! Winners offd were however all 3/1 or shorter. Ages of winners all 5/6 years and a last run 14-49 days earlier also a common feature.

(8.45) 2m 2f Maiden Hurdle (30%): 8/10 winners had finished 6^th or better on their latest run. With only one winner having odds above 9/1. Preferred age group is 5/6 years with 8/10 wins seen.