Carlisle Trends

MONDAY 31ST MAY

(2.10) 2m 2f Nov Selling Hurdle (Fav 55%): All winners since 2000 were aged between 4-7 years old. All winners rested at least 12 days since last race. SP's were all 9/1 or shorter. Trainer to watch: Mrs S Smith (won 2006 & 2008).
(2.45) 2m 2f Nov Hurdle for 4yo (50%): SP's of winners were all 4/1 or shorter. Two racecourse debutants have won te race althought the remainder had all finished 5^th or better on their last run. Trainers to watch C Mann (won 2003 & 2004), Ms V Williams (won 2008 & 2009).
(3.55) 2m 5f Beginners Chase (50%): One shock result in 2007 although remainder since 2004 were all well backed at odds of 4/1 or shorter. All past winners had finished 1st/2^nd on at least one of last four races. 7Yo are the preferred age group with 3/6 wins.
(4.30) 2m 6f Mdn Hunter Chase (0%): A trappy race to fathom out usually with most horses having little form to speak of (outside PTP races). Perhaps the jockey status is a crucial factor here as all 4 past winners were ridden by a rider claiming nil or only a 3lbs allowance.
(5.05) 2m 6f Nov H/cap Hurdle (11%): 7/9 races were won by horses at odds of 5/1 or shorter thus second/third favourites seem to fare better than actual favourites here. All horses rested at least 10 days since their last run. Only 1/9 winners had not finished 4^th or better on at least one of their last two races. Trainer to watch: R Ford (won 2000, 2006 & 2010).
(5.45) 3m 2f H/cap Hurdle for CJ's (0%): Only run 5 times before but is proving to be a tricky finale with all winners odds 8/1 or longer. All winners had last run within 23 days. Trainer to watch : Ms L Harrison (won 2006 & 2010).

SATURDAY 29TH MAY

(6.00) 2m 6f Nov Hurdle ( Fav 60%): Only run 5 times before with all winners odds being 4/1 or shorter. Past winners had all finished 3^rd or better on last run. Ages of winners to date have all been 4/5 years with 5yo having the best record so far with 4/5 wins. No conditional jockey has yet ridden the winner of this race. Trainer to watch: P Bowen (won 2008).
(7.00) 2m 6f H/cap Chase (60%): Again race run just 5 times before. All past winners finished 3^rd or better on their last completed race and all had run within the last 21 days. Oldest winner to date has been 8yrs. Weights carried by winners have ranged from 10st 3lbs to 11^st 11lbs.
(7.35) 3m 2f H/cap Chase (25%): This time the race has been run 6 times before. Past winners had all finished 4^th or better on their latest completed run. Heighest weight carried by past winners was 11^st 8lbs. Trainer to watch: Ms LV Russell (won 2006).
(8.40) 2m 2f Maiden Hurdle (30%): 8/9 winners had finished 6^th or better on their latest run. With only one winner having odds above 9/1. Preferred age group is 5/6 years with 7/9 wins seen.

SATURDAY 29TH AUGUST

2.10 - 2m 6f MAIDEN HURDLE (40%): The last four winners had all finished 2nd on their last run under NH rules. All were aged between 5-7 years. All past winners also well backed at odds of 8/1 or shorter. Trainers to watch: P Bowen (won 2008), D McCain Jr (2007).

2.40 - 2M 6F BEGINNERS CHASE (16%); All six past winners had finished 3rd or better on their last completed run (excludes falls, pulled up etc). All aged between 5&7 years with 7yo being the preferred age group. Again all past winners well supported at odds of 8/1 or shorter. Trainers to watch (J Lambe won 2005).

3.15 - 2M 2F NOV H/CAP CHASE (40%); No previous winners had finished better than 2nd on last outing. 8/10 winners carried a weight of 11st or greater. All past winners had been rested at least 12 days since their last outing under NH rules. Trainers to watch: D McCain Jr (won 2007), R Ford (2005), R C Guest (2004), D Burchell (2002) and P Monteith (2001).

3.50 - 2M 6F SELLING H/CAP HURDLE FOR CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS (15%); Most past winners had finished 6th or better on at least one of the last three outings. The last 5 winners all carried weights of 11st 4lbs or greater. All winners since 1999 had been rested at least 7 days since last run. Trainers to watch: E Williams (won 2008), A Berry (2004).

4.25 - 2M 2F H/CAP HURDLE (N/A); New race in 2007 although both winners finished 4th or better on last race and both were ridden by conditional jockeys claiming a 7lbs allowance. Trainers to watch: P Monteith (won 2008), J Lambe (2007).

5.00 - 2M 2F NOV H/CAP HURDLE (35%); Six of the last 7 winners had finished 2nd/3rd on their last outing over NH rules. All past winners aged between 4-6 years. 7/10 past winners carried a weight of 11st 2lbs or more. Conditional jockeys (claiming a weight allowance) rode 5 of the last 10 winners in this race. Only one past winner had odds greater than 8/1. Trainers to watch: J Lambe (won 2007), M Todhunter (2005).

MONDAY 31ST AUGUST

2.20 - 2M 1F NOV HURDLE FOR 3YO (60%): This race is sometimes split into two divisions thus we have seen a total of 12 races since 1999. Of these races five were won by horses making their NH debuts whilst the remainder were all won by horses which finished 3rd or better on their last NH outing (within last 37 days). Past winners were generally well backed with only one having odds greater than 13/2. Trainers to watch: D McCain Jr (won 2006), G M Moore (2005), M Chapman (2004 & 2000), A Berry (2003).

2.55 - 2M 1F SELLING H/CAP HURDLE ( 10%); Most past winners had last raced within the last 12 days. Conditional jockeys claiming a weight allowance have ridden 7 of the last 10 winners. Whilst favourites have a poor record only two winners since 1999 had odds greater than 9/1. 8/10 winners also carried 11st 2lbs or greater. Trainers to watch: P Monteith (won 2007), A Berry (2006, 2004, 2003), M Chapman (2001).

3.30 - 2M 6F H/CAP CHASE (30%); 8/10 winners had finished 6th or better on their last outing and 7/10 winners had carried a weight of 11st 5lbs or greater. Trainers to watch: R C Guest (won 2008), Mrs S J Smith (2003).

4.05 - 3M 2F H/CAP CHASE (0%); Named in memory of trainer A Sadik’s son and the yard won the race last year with one of its three runners so if any of the yard’s two entered horses do line up on the day they should be respected. Favourites again tend to fare poorly albeit there have been no major shocks with all winners having odds of 10/1 or shorter. Apart from last years winner all others had finished 6th or better on their last race. 7/8 winners carried a weight of 11st 1lb or greater. Trainer to watch: A Sadik (won 2008).

4.40 - 2M 2F MAIDEN HURDLE (20%); There have been two winners making their NH debuts in this race but that apart all others had finished 5th or better on at least one of last three races. Although favourites fare poorly again most winners were reasonably supported at odds of 8/1 or shorter. 5yo is the slightly preferred age group with 5/10 wins. Trainer to watch: J Lambe (won 2007).

5.15 - 2M 6F H/CAP HURDLE (0%); Only run 4 times since 2005 with no favourite yet obliging although no winner had odds greater than 9/1. All four winners had finished either 2nd/3rd/4th on last race and had been rested at least 24 days since their last outing. The last 3 winners were all ridden by a conditional jockey claiming a 7lbs weight allowance. Trainers to watch: Mrs K Walton (won 2008), D McCain Jr (2007), Mrs S J Smith (2006), N Wilson (2005).

Information supplied by www.northernracingclub.com - free Doncaster St Leger trendsetter guide available next month.