May Festival Trends 2001-2010
Chester racecourse, situated on the River Dee to the southeast of Chester city centre, is the oldest and one of the most distinctive Flat racecourses in the country. Horse racing first took place on the Roodee in the early 16th century and the tight, one-mile circuit and short straight present a unique test for racehorses; a low draw and a fast start are necessary in sprint races and long-striding horses are usually at a distinct disadvantage, regardless of distance. Chester racecourse has, in fact, recently been voted the fourth most popular racecourse in the UK and reported an increase in attendances of 10% in 2009, the largest increase of any of the top 15 racecourses in the country.

Chester May Festival

The three-day May Festival is the highlight of the season at Chester and features several notable races, including the Chester Cup and a recognised trial for the Epsom Derby, the Chester Vase. The Chester May Festival, this year, begins on Wednesday 5th May, with Totesport Cup Day. The opening race of the meeting is the Manor House Lily Agnes Stakes, a 5-furlong contest for 2-year-olds with prize money of £21,000 and is followed later in the day by Chester`s most valuable race of the year, the Chester Cup, with prize money of £120,000. The Chester Cup is always hugely competitive, befitting a race of its status and the distance of an extended 2¼ miles means that luck in running as well as stamina is required. The Chester Cup has had a habit of throwing up a good-priced winner in recent years - the last five winners were priced at 7/1, 33/1, 14/1, 28/1 and 16/1 - and there has been just one winning favourite in the past 10 years. Trainer Michael Jarvis and jockey Philip Robinson have the best recent records in the race, courtesy of back-to-back wins for Anak Pekan in 2004 and 2005; 5 and 6-year-olds have accounted for 6 out of the last 10 winners.

The second day, also known as "Ladies Day" features the Chester Vase, run over the same distance as the Epsom Derby (1½ miles) and famously won by Shergar before his Derby triumph in 1980. Despite its reputation as a Derby trial, the last Chester Vase runner to win the Derby was Quest For Fame, who finished second in 1990.

The third day, also known as "City Day", features two more prestigious Group 3 races, the £75,000 Ormonde Stakes over 1 mile 5 furlongs and the £65,000 Dee Stakes over 1 mile 2 furlongs.

The old adage, "horses for courses", is perhaps more applicable to Chester than any other racecourse in the country and a certain amount of specialist knowledge is required when trying to pick a winner. Rather than wade through the form book to highlight the horses that are likely to run well at Chester, many punters prefer to rely on free racing tips available on the Internet, in racing publications and in daily newspapers. Although these tips are free of charge, many of them are provided by experts in the racing industry, who can recognise the conformation, running style and general level of form of typical Chester winners.

The draw is usually very important at this track so it is also worth checking out the NRC drawfacts statistics on the day of the meetings by clicking here

 

WEDNESDAY

5f Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes for 2yo (25%): No unraced horse has won this race since 1999 and all other winners were 4th or better on their previous start with all horses being rested at least 4 days since their last race. The draw tends to be a big factor in this race with 6/10 winners coming out of stalls 1-3 although stall 5 has provided 3 of the last 5 winners with only the 2001 winner drawn higher than stall 5.

1m 3f Cheshire Oaks for 3yo Fillies (65%): Nine of the last ten winners had finished 5th or better on their last run, with only two winnesr making their seasonal debut, with all others running just once in current season - the last six of these finished 1st/2nd LTO. A last run some 13-31 days earlier was seen in all but one of the other winners. The draw can be influential, even in a smaller field, with only two past winners drawn higher than stall 4. Trainers to watch: AP O'Brien (won 2009 & 2008), M Tregonning (won 2002 & 2003).

2m 3f Chester Cup (Handicap) (20%): Only 1/10 winners had not managed at least a 5th place on either of their last two races. 7/10 were making their seasonal re-appearances whilst the rest had run just once in the current season (at least 18 days before this race). Most winners aged 4-6 years with just one aged 7 years. Even over this marathon trip the draw can be a factor with 6/10 winners coming from stalls 1-5. Of the first five home in 2010 four are trying again in 2011! Trainer to watch: BW Hills (won 2009 & 2001)

5f Handicap (10%): No winner since 1989 has come from a stall higher than 8 in this race.  All winners carried  9st 4lbs or less. Three winners were making their seasonal re-appearances whilst the remainder had all run no more than twice in current season with a last run some 7-26 days earlier. Masamah won the race last year although has a poor draw this year whilst Doctor Parkes was 8th last year from a wide draw and has a better, but not ideal, draw this year. Trainer to watch:  D Nicholls (won 2005 & 2006).

1m 2f Maiden for 3yo (60%): Today's best race for favourite backers! Of the other winners the longest SP seen was 7/1. No previously unraced horse has won this event going back to 1987! The last ten winners had all finished 5th or better on their last run. being rested at least 10 days since their last race, with only two winners making their seasonal re-appearance. Trainers to watch: M Stoute (won in 2009, 2007 & 2005 - all favourites), J Gosden (2003, 2004, 2006 - all 3/1 or shorter) BW Hills (2008 & 2002 - all favourites ).

1m 4f Handicap for 3yo (45%):  6/10 recent winners had won their last race with the others finishing 2nd/3rd on at least one of last two runs. No past winner had won with only one previous racecourse appearance. Trainers to watch: M Johnston (won 2005 & 2007).


 

THURSDAY

7.5f Handicap for 3yo (40%): Of the last 10 winners only two were making their seasonal débuts with all others finishing 3rd or better on at least one of their races in the current season. 7/10 winners carried a weight of 8st 8lbs or more. Whilst some higher drawn horses have won the race before 8/10 were drawn in stall 7 or lower.

1m 2f Huxley Stakes (Gr 3) for 4yo+ (50%): M Stoute has an excellent record in the race winning it five times since 2001 - with all being sent off as favourites - with Maraahel responsible for three of these wins.  Oldest winner seen was 6yo although most past winners were aged 4/5 years.

1m 4f Chester Vase (Gr 3) for 3yo: (30%): Prior to last year we had to go back to 1993 to find a winner of the race that was making its seasonal début.  All but one of the last ten winners finished 4th or better on their last race. Trainers to watch: AP O'Brien (won 2007 & 2009), M Stoute (2006 & 2008) and C Brittain (2003 & 2005).

5f Maiden Stakes for 2yo (65%): The betting is usually a good guide for this race with 10/11 winners starting at odds of 9/1 or shorter. However again the draw will be a major influence with 9/11 winners coming our of stalls 1-5. Trainer Barry Hills has won the race 3 times before and all were favourites, ridden by son Michael Hills and had finished 4th or better on last run. The 2009 winner was making its racecourse debut although all other winners with past form had finished 4th or better on their last start. Trainers to watch: BW Hills (won 2005, 2006 & 2007).

1m 2f Handicap for 4yo+ (Rated 0-100) (10%): Not only is this a poor race for favourites but it's one where 7/10 winners were at double figure odds including 25/1, 50/1 and 66/1 winners!  It is no surprise therefore to find that 8/10 past winners finished 6th or worse on their last run.

6f Handicap for 3yo (30%): All past winners carried a weight of 9st 2lbs or less. A 6th placed finish or better on at least one of last two races was seen for all winners and a typical profile is a last run some 5-22 days earlier. The low draw is not quite as critical in this race although we still saw 7/10 winners coming out of stalls 1-6.

1m 2f Handicap for 4yo+ (Rated 0-90) : New race for 2010.

FRIDAY

7.5f Handicap for 4yo+ (30%):
D Nicholls is leading trainer in the race with 3 wins although has failed to win since 2004. Again a low draw should help with 7/10 winners coming from stalls 1-7. Only 2/10 winners finished worse than 5th LTO. Trainer to watch: D Nicholls (won 2001, 2002 & 2004 - all having last run 4-6 days earlier).

(Listed) Dee Stakes over 1m 3f for 3yo (20%):
6/10 winners had just one previous race in current season with a further three making their seasonal debuts. 8/10 past winners also finished 1st/2nd LTO. Trainers to watch: M Stoute (won 2003 & 2008), AP O'Brien (2005 & 2007).

Gr 3 Ormond Stakes over 1m 5f (55%): Only 1/10 winners were not aged 4/5 years. 7/10 past winners had one previous race in current season with just one making its seasonal return to action. 9/10 were also 5th or better on their last race. Trainer to watch: M Stoute (won 2007 & 2010).

5f Handicap for 3yo (20%): 8/10 past winners came from stalls 1-7. The last 9 winners all finished 4th or better LTO, including the last two which were making their seasonal re-appearances. Trainer to watch: E Alston (won 2001 & 2009).

7f Maiden Fillies Stakes for 3yo (80%): Best race of the day for favourite backers! Last 10 winners all finished 6th or better on last run with 7/10 of these last in action 19-23 days earlier. Trainers to watch: BW Hills (won 2004, 2006 & 2007 - all sent off as favourites) & M Stoute (2003 & 2010 - also sent off as favourites).

7f Handicap: New race in 2010.

1m 4f Handicap for 4yo+ (20%): Last two favourites have won the race after a barren spell for favourites since 1993. 6/10 winners were unplaced on last start with four double digit priced winners since 2002 so tends to be a fairly open race as a finale for the meeting. Two recent 'doubles' from horses/trainers but last years winner doesnt run again in 2011. Trainers to watch: J Bethell (2006 & 2007), B Ellison (2003 & 2004).




Chester Racecourse - official site


Trainer & Jockey Statistics


Chester Trends - Other Meetings




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