May Festival Trends 2000-2009
Chester racecourse, situated on the River Dee to the southeast of Chester city centre, is the oldest and one of the most distinctive Flat racecourses in the country. Horse racing first took place on the Roodee in the early 16th century and the tight, one-mile circuit and short straight present a unique test for racehorses; a low draw and a fast start are necessary in sprint races and long-striding horses are usually at a distinct disadvantage, regardless of distance. Chester racecourse has, in fact, recently been voted the fourth most popular racecourse in the UK and reported an increase in attendances of 10% in 2009, the largest increase of any of the top 15 racecourses in the country.

Chester May Festival

The three-day May Festival is the highlight of the season at Chester and features several notable races, including the Chester Cup and a recognised trial for the Epsom Derby, the Chester Vase. The Chester May Festival, this year, begins on Wednesday 5th May, with Totesport Cup Day. The opening race of the meeting is the Manor House Lily Agnes Stakes, a 5-furlong contest for 2-year-olds with prize money of £21,000 and is followed later in the day by Chester`s most valuable race of the year, the Chester Cup, with prize money of £120,000. The Chester Cup is always hugely competitive, befitting a race of its status and the distance of an extended 2¼ miles means that luck in running as well as stamina is required. The Chester Cup has had a habit of throwing up a good-priced winner in recent years - the last five winners were priced at 7/1, 33/1, 14/1, 28/1 and 16/1 - and there has been just one winning favourite in the past 10 years. Trainer Michael Jarvis and jockey Philip Robinson have the best recent records in the race, courtesy of back-to-back wins for Anak Pekan in 2004 and 2005; 5 and 6-year-olds have accounted for 6 out of the last 10 winners.

The second day, also known as "Ladies Day" features the Chester Vase, run over the same distance as the Epsom Derby (1½ miles) and famously won by Shergar before his Derby triumph in 1980. Despite its reputation as a Derby trial, the last Chester Vase runner to win the Derby was Quest For Fame, who finished second in 1990.

The third day, also known as "City Day", features two more prestigious Group 3 races, the £75,000 Ormonde Stakes over 1 mile 5 furlongs and the £65,000 Dee Stakes over 1 mile 2 furlongs.

The old adage, "horses for courses", is perhaps more applicable to Chester than any other racecourse in the country and a certain amount of specialist knowledge is required when trying to pick a winner. Rather than wade through the form book to highlight the horses that are likely to run well at Chester, many punters prefer to rely on free racing tips available on the Internet, in racing publications and in daily newspapers. Although these tips are free of charge, many of them are provided by experts in the racing industry, who can recognise the conformation, running style and general level of form of typical Chester winners.

 

WEDNESDAY


5f Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes for 2yo (35%): No unraced horse has won this race since 1999 and all other winners were 3rd or better on their previous start with all horses being rested at least 4 days since their last race. The draw tends to be a big factor in this race with 7/10 winners coming out of stalls 1-3. Trainer to watch: PD Evans (won 2009).


1m 3f Cheshire Oaks for 3yo Fillies (55%): All of the last ten winners had finished 5th or better on their last run, with only one winner making their seasonal debut, with all others running just once in current season. A last run some 13-31 days earlier was seen in all but one of the other winners. The draw can be influential, even in a smaller field, with only one past winner drawn higher than stall 4. Trainers to watch: AP O'Brien (won 2009 & 2008), BW Hills (won 2005).


2m 3f Chester Cup (Handicap) (10%): Only 1/10 winners had not managed at least a 5th place on either of their last two races. 6/10 were making their seasonal re-appearances whilst the rest had run just once in the current season (at least 18 days before this race). Most winners aged 4-6 years with just one aged 7 years. Even over this marathon trip the draw can be a factor with 6/10 winners coming from stalls 1-4. Trainers to watch: BW Hills (won 2009 & 2001), I Williams (won 2008), R Fahey 9won 2007) & J Dunlop (won 2002).


5f Handicap (10%): No winner since 1989 has come from a stall higher than 8 in this race so it is perhaps not surprising to see the two highest drawn horses today withdrawn overnight! All winners carried between 8st 4lbs and 9st 4lbs. Two winners were making their seasnal re-appearances whilst the remainder had all run no more than twice in current season with a last run some 7-26 days earlier. Trainers to watch: E Alston (won in 2000, 2001 & 2003 - all with Damalis), D Nicholls (won 2005 & 2006), H Morrison (won 2009 with Sohrab who runs again today off a weight 4lbs lower than last year).


1m 4f Handicap for 3yo (40%): Highest weight carried by past winners has been 9st 7lbs. 7/10 recent winners had won their last race with the others finishing 2nd/3rd on at least one of last two runs. No past winner had won with only one previous racecourse appearance. Trainers to watch: M Johnston (won 2005 & 2007), M Jarvis (won 2006).


1m 2f Maiden for 3yo (70%): Today's best race for favourite backers! Of the other winners the longest SP seen was 7/1. No previously unraced horse has won this event going back to 1987! The last ten winners had all finished 5th or better on their last run. being rested at least 10 days since their last race, with only one winner making their seasonal re-appearance. Trainers to watch: M Stoute (won in 2009, 2007 & 2005), BW Hills (2008, 2002 & 2000). NB Both these trainers only won when horses went off as favourites.



 

THURSDAY


1m 2f Handicap for 4yo+ (Rated 0-100) (10%): Not only is this a poor race for favourites but it's one where 7/10 winners were at double figure odds including 25/1, 50/1 and 66/1 winners! Even though we have a smaller field this year another winning 'outsider' should be seriously considered. It is no surprise therefore to find that 9/10 past winners finished 6th or worse on their last run.


1m 2f Huxley Stakes (Gr 3) for 4yo+ (70%): M Stoute has an excellent record in the race winning it five times since 2001. A word of warning this year is that all previous stable winners were backed down to favouritism, which seems unlikely to be the case in 2010 with Kingdom of Fife! Oldest winner seen was 6yo although most past winners were aged 4/5 years.


1m 4f Chester Vase (Gr 3) for 3yo: (30%): We have to go back to 1993 to find a winner of the race that was making its seasonal début with all but one of the last ten winners finishing 4th or better on their last race. Trainers to watch: AP O'Brien (won 2007 & 2009) and B Hills (2001).


7.5f Handicap for 3yo (40%): Of the last 10 winners only one was making its seasonal début with all others finishing 3rd or better on at least one of their races in the current season. 7/10 winners carried a weight of 8st 9lbs or more. Whilst some higher drawn horses have won the race before 8/10 were drawn in stall 7 or lower. Trainers to watch: M Johnston (won 2007), R Hannon (2006), M Jarvis (2005) & C Brittain (2002).


5f Maiden Stakes for 2yo (65%): The betting is usually a good guide for this race with 9/10 winners starting at odds of 9/1 or shorter. However again the draw will be a major influence with 9/10 winners coming our of stalls 1-5. Trainer Barry Hills has won the race 3 times before and all were favourites, ridden by son Michael Hills and had finished 4th or better on last run - the only flaw in the profile of Diamond Geezah in 2010 is the poor draw (stall 9). Last years winner was making its racecourse debut although all other winners with past form had finished 5th or better on their last start. Trainers to watch: BW Hills (won 2005, 2006 & 2007), E Alston (2004), P D Evans (2003), A Bailey (2000).


6f Handicap for 3yo (30%): All past winners carried a weight of 9st 2lbs or less. A 6th placed finish or better on at least one of last two races was seen for all winners and a typical profile is a last run some 7-28 days earlier. The low draw is not quite as critical in this race although we still saw 7/10 winners coming out of stalls 1-6. Trainer to watch: R Fahey (won 2002).


1m 2f Handicap for 4yo+ (Rated 0-90) : New race for 2010.




Chester Racecourse - official site


Trainer & Jockey Statistics


Chester Trends - Other Meetings




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