GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 10 YEAR TRENDS
The following notes may help readers to draw up short lists for the races in this year's major July flat meeting. The race order is as run in 2010 and after each race name/detail a figure in brackets represents the favourites win percentage record in the race.
1M 2F HANDICAP (0%); A 5th place or better LTO was seen in 9/10 winners having last run within previous 41 days. 4yo have the best record with 6 wins followed by 5yo with 3 wins with oldest winner aged 6yrs. M Johnston & M Channon are leading trainers with 2 wins each. Draw L40%;M40%H20%.
1M 4F GROUP 3 GORDON STAKES (25%); A 4th place or better LTO was seen in 9/10 winners and most had won at least once on last four outings. M Stoute is leading trainers with 3 wins - all had finsihed 1st/2nd LTO and were well supported at odds of 7/1 or shorter. All winners last raced 19-58 days earlier. Draw L40%;M30%;H30%.
7 FURL GROUP 2 LENNOX STAKES (11%); All winners aged between 3-5yrs finishing 4th or better on at least one of last two outings. G Butler & S Bin Suroor are leading trainers with 2 wins each. Draw L22%;M55%;H22%.
5 FURL GROUP 3 MOLECOMB STAKES (30%); 8/10 recent winners had finished 1st/2nd on last outing. W Haggas is leading trainer with 2 wins. Draw L30%;50%;H20%.
1M 6F HANDICAP (30%); M Johnston & L Cumani are leading trainers with 3 wins each - the Johnston/Cumani winners had all finshed 4th or better on last run. All winners last raced 17-45 days before. No winner aged more than 5yrs. 9/10 winners had finished 6th or better on last outing. Draw L20%;M40%;H40%.
1 MILE HANDICAP (25%); D Nicholls is leading trainer with 2 wins. Six winners won their last race with all 10 winners finishing 5th or better LTO having last raced 2-39 days earlier.
6 FURL MAIDEN FOR 2YO (33%); M Tregoning is leading trainer with 2 wins. 9/10 past winners finished 4th or better LTO within the last 8-53 days. Draw L30%;M20%;H50%.
2M 5F HANDICAP (35%); J Given is leading trainer with 2 wins. 8/10 winners were 4th or better on last outing. 4 year olds are preferred age group with 5/10 wins followed by 5yo with 3 wins and no winner was aged older than 7yrs. All last raced within 6-43 days earlier. Draw L40%;M30%;H30%.
7 FURL GR 2 VINTAGE STAKES (40%); M Johnston & M Tregoning are leading trainers with 2 wins each. 9/10 winners finished 1st LTO with the others finishing 2nd/5th. Last run usually between 11-43 days earlier. The race has thrown up several past winners who have gone onto 3yo classic success. Draw L50%;M20%;H30%.
1 MILE GROUP 1 SUSSEX STAKES (35%): S Bin Suroor and AP O'Brien are leading trainers with 3 wins each - the Suroor winners all finshed 1st/2nd at Ascot LTO in the Queen Anne Stks some 43 days earlier whilst all the O'Brien winners won LTO and went off as favourites. A 1st/2nd place LTO was seen for all winners. Three year olds have a good record with 6/10 wins. Draw L0%;M70^;H20%.
1M 4F HANDICAP 3YO (10%); All had finished either 1st/2nd on one or more of last three outings. A last run 18-60 days earlier also seen for all winners. M Stoute is leading trainer with 2 wins. Draw L30%;M30%H40%.
1M 1F FILLIES HANDICAP (50%); All past winners last ran within 11-32 days - all but one had a 1st/2nd place on at least one of last two runs. 3 year olds fare best with 8/10 wins. Draw L30%;M50%;H20%.
6 FURL MAIDEN (FILIES) FOR 2YO (55%); J Dunlop is the leading trainer with 4 wins - all of which had only onle prior run finishing no worse than 5th and being well backed at odds of 5/1 or shorter. Draw L50%;M30%;H20%.
7 FURLONG CONDITIONS STAKES (38%); All last raced 7-42 days earlier with none actually winning LTO. 3yo fare best in this event with 6/9 wins and oldest winner aged 6yrs. R Hannon is leading trainer with 2 wins. Draw L44%;M0%;H55%.
1M 6F LILY LANGTREE STAKES (8%%); All 6 winners had finished 4th or better LTO as well as winning at least once on last three outings. Lady Herries is leading trainer with 2 wins. Draw L16%;M66%;H16%.
5 FURL GROUP 3 KING GEORGE STKS (30%); Longest SP seen was 10-1. All winners aged between 3-6 years oldand last raced within last 4-44 days. Draw L30%;M20%;H50%.
2 MILE GRP 3 GOODWOOD CUP (45%); M Johnston, D Elsworth & M Stoute & A P O'Brien are all on 2 winners each. A last run at Royal Ascot has produced 8/10 winners (with only Yeats winning the Ascot equivalent and following up here). Draw L40%;M20%;H40%.
1M 2F HANDICAP 3YO (40%); A 1st/2nd run on either of last two outings was a common factor in 8/10 winners. All last raced within 4-23 days. M Johnston & J Gosden are leading trainers with 2 wins each. Draw L10%;M20%;H70%.
7 FURL HANDICAP 3YO (0%) . A 6th place or better LTO was seen in 7/10 winners. Draw L0%;M40%;H60%.
7 FURL MAIDEN (FILLIES) 2YO (35%); B Hills is leading trainer with 2 wins. There have been 4 unraced winners and 6 finishing 6th or better LTO. Draw L20%;M40%;H40%.
5 FURL HANDICAP (50%); Race previously named after Zuhair who was responsible for 4 of D Nicholls wins in the event - other recent stable winner being Continent. Draw L0%;M40%;H60%.
FRIDAY - Updated for 2011
1M 4F GROUP 3 GLORIOUS STKS 4yo+ (40%): M Johnston & L Cumani are the leading trainers with 2 wins - both trainers horses were all well backed at odds of 11/2 or shorter having finished 4th or better in last race. 4yo is the leading age group with 7/10 wins with all other winners aged 5/6 yrs.
1 MILE CONDITIONS STAKES for 3YO (20%); M Johnston is again leading trainer in the race with 2 wins - both having run unplaced on the opening day of the meeting. 7/10 winners has a 1st/2nd placed run on either of last two starts.
1 MILE 'TOTESPORT' HANDICAP (20%); The draw in this race usually has a very large influence with 9/10 winners drawn low. A 6th place or better usually seen on last outing with only one winner's SP greater than 12-1. Whilst M Johnston does not have a runner this year his record is stong with 3 wins since 2001 with R Charlton next best on 2 wins - his Proponent runs again this year and was first home on the poorly drawn side of the field last year. Oldest winners age has been 6yo going back to 1987 so Proponent will need to break that long trend to win this year..
6 FURL GRP 2 RICHMOND STAKES 2YO (30%); With R Hannon winning the race for the last three seasons his runners this year must merit respect. The winners were all partnered by R Hughes and had odds of 5/1 or shorter as well as a last run 20-22 days earlier. This all points to Harbour Watch although statistically Eureka may have the better draw.
7 FURL NURSERY HANDICAP FOR 2YO (18%); 8/10 winners finished 4th or better LTO. R Hannon is again the trainer to watch with 3 wins since 2002 albeit he won last year and has yet to win in successive years. Of his winners all were 1st/2nd LTO and were sent off at odd sof 8/1 or shorter. They all carried a weight of 8st 10lbs or more so this points to Lord of the Shadows as being the best of this years trio. Statistically Mabroor is the best drawn of todays runners.
7 FURL GRP 3 OAK TREE FILLIES STAKES (30%); Race has been fairly well dominated by 3yo's with 7/10 wins with other winners all aged 4yo. Last 10 winners all finished 5th or better LTO. Last years winner Tropical Paradise attemps to repeat the vistory albeit no dual winner has been seen going back to 1986. Pyrrha also attemps to improve on last years 3rd place
5 FURL HANDICAP (15%); All winners had finished in first four on at least one of last two outings. Only three horses carried more than 8st 12lbs. Draw L40%;M20%;H40%.
SATURDAY - Updated for 2011
6 FURL STEWARDS SPRINT HANDICAP (30%); D Nicholls (Flak Jacket three times) has won this race 6 times since 1999, including 4 times in the last 10 years, and will no doubt again have multiple entries in the race. All but two of the Nicholls winners raced 2 days earlier with all finishing in the first 5 home.Joseph Henry attempts to win the race for a second time but at 9yo would become the oldest ever winner of the race. Five Star Junior finished 6th behind Joseph Henry last year and has an 11lb pull in the weights this year. Only 3 winners since 2001 finished worse than 4th LTO.
1M 6F HANDICAP (40%); Both M Johnston & L Cumani have trained 3 winners each in the race although neither trainer is represented this year. 8/10 winners carried 9st 4lbs or more. All past winners were aged 3-5 years with 5yo winning 6/10 races. A 6th place or better on last start was also a common feature.
1M 2F GRP 2 NASSAU STAKES (60%); M Stoute is the leading trainer with three winners (latest 2004) who all won first time out in current season However H Cecil was won for the last two years with Midday although only two 5yo's have won the race since 1987 - with 3yo picking up 6/10 races since 2001. All winners last raced 20-79 days earlier and had won at least one of last three races. Longest winners odds were 11/2.
6 FURL STEWARDS CUP HANDICAP (13%): 7/10 winners finished 1st/2nd on either of last two outings. Last run usually seen 6-56 days earlier. Preferred age groups are 4-6yo with 5yo winning 6/10 races.
7FURL MAIDEN FOR 2YO (10%); Three debutant winners with most others finishing 2nd/3rd on either of last two races. R Hannon is leading trainer with 4 wins - of these winners two were previously unraced whilst the others all finished 5th or better on their last start.
6 FURL NURSERY HANDICAP 2YO (30%); Whilst D Nicholls has dominated this race in recent years (winning 4 consecutive years 2006-10) he does not have a runner this time. Past winners all had consistent form with 9/10 finishing 4th or better on all of their last 3 runs (one had run only twice before). In the weights 8/10 carried 8st 7lbs or greater.
1M 1F APP HANDICAP (28%); Restricted to apprentice jockeys since 2004. 6/7 winners had finished 6th or better on at least one of last two outings and all last raced between 4-49 days earlier. A weight of 9st+ is also a common theme. All but one well supported at odds of 7/1 or shorter.
A York Ebor trendsetters guide will be updated on the club web site next month for followers of these guides. |