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TRENDSETTERS GUIDES
Races will be previewed where they have been run at least three times before, looking at the common trends between past winners of the races. The figure in brackets after the race details shows the favourites past record in the race as a percentage of wins i.e. one win in four races is shown as 25%. Trainers who have won the race before and have a runner declared overnight will also be highlighted. For flat races the best drawn horses will also be mentioned - the drawfacts figures assume that the stalls are split into 3 equal parts - low, middle & high..
Hopefully these guides will assist readers to draw up short lists of fancied runners in the races covered. 
SATURDAY 17TH JULY
Only 4 of tonights races have been run for 3 years or more, they are:
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6.40 - 6f Maiden for 2yo (33%): Three of the last nine winners were making their racecourse debuts whilst none of the other winners had raced more than twice before. Only 2/9 winners had odds above 11/2. Trainers to watch: R Fahey (won 2000 & 2005), M Channon (2003). -
7.10 - 5f Nursery for 2yo (28%): Only one of last seven winners carried less than 8st 3lbs. Trainer to watch: E McMahon (won 2005). -
7.40 - 1m 6f Handicap (66%): Race only run 3 times before with all winners having SP's of 5/1 or shorter. A 3rd/4th place on last start was also a common feature. Trainer to watch: T Easterby (won 2008). -
8.40 - 1m Handicap (33%): Again just 3 previous races. Past winners had all finished 5th or better on last run (within last 21 days) and were well backed at odds of 7/1 or shorter.
THURSDAY 1ST JULY
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2.30 6f Nov Fillies Stakes (44%): 7/10 winners were backed down to odds of 11/4 or shorter. -
3.00 6f Handicap (26%): The last 8 winners all came from stall 8 or higher. Oldest winner seen at 6 years old. -
3.30 1m Handicap (20%): Only run 5 times before with 3yo winning 4/5 races to date. Trainer to watch: M Johnston - won 2009. -
4.00 & 4.30 1m Maiden (40%): All five past winners were 2nd/3rd on last start and were well backed at 3/1 or shorter. Trainers to watch: W Haggas (won 2006 & 2008), M Jarvis (won 2008) -
5.00 1m6f Handicap (18%): A last run in the previous 29 days was a common factor but no other significant trends in the race.
THURSDAY 10TH JUNE
Only two races tonight have been run at least 3 times before - they are:
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(7.20) 6f Maiden for 2yo (0%): Last winning favourite ofthis race was back in 1999. That said 8/9 winners were fairly well backed at odds of between 5/2 and 8/1, Past winners that had run before were all rested at least 11 days since their last race. Trainers to watch: M Channon (won 2001 & 2006), S Bin Suroor (2004), R Hannon (2003), PD Evans (2007), E McMahon (2008) & BW Hills (2005). Drawfacts: Low 33%, Middle 33%, High 33%. -
(7.50) 5f H/cap (12%): Only run 4 times since 2000 with all past winners having finished 3rd or better on at least one of last three races. Trainers to watch: T Easterby (won 2001), JJ Quinn (2002). Drawfacts: Low 25%, Middle 25%, High 50%.
WEDNESDAY JUNE 9TH
Only two of todays races have been run at least 3 times before - they are:
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(3.20) 6f H/cap for 3yo (40%): The 5 past winners had all been rested at least 18 days since their last run. Trainer to watch: E Alston (won 2008). Drawfacts: Low 20%, Middle 40%, High 40%. -
(4.55) 1m 2f H/cap (0%): All 4 of the past winners carried a weight of 9st or lower. Longest period off the track for past winners was 82 days. 5Yo are the preferred age group with ¾ wins in the race. Trainers to watch: I Williams (Won 2008), R Fahey (2007). Drawfacts: Low 25%, Middle 25%, High 50%.
SATURDAY 29TH MAY
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(2.30) Sandy Lane Stks over 6f (Fav 40%): Last ten winners all had SP's of 8/1 or shorter with the last four favourites winning - albeit they had all run well within the last 42 days. Trainers to watch: W Haggas (won 2009), B Hills (2007), H Cecil (2005). -
(3.00) Pinacle Stakes over 1m 4f (28%): All seven past winners had finished 6th or better on their last race and all were aged 4 years. Trainer to watch: L Cumani (won 2004). -
(3.30) Jury Stakes over 7f (30%): Whilst there have been two 16/1 winners of the race the other eitht winners all had odds of 9/2 or shorter. The draw may have an impact here as the favourite is drawn wide in stall 9 and no winner of the race since 1987 has been drawn higher than stall 8. Trainer to watch: M Stoute (won 2009 with Main Aim). -
(4.10) 5f Maiden for 2yo (20%): Only 2/10 winners were making racecourse debuts whilst the remainder had finished 6th or better on their last run. Trainer to watch: K Ryan (won 2005). -
(4.45) 2m H/cap(11%): This has been a tricky race in the past with 3/9 winners having odds of 20/1+ . Heighest weight carried by past winners was 9st 9lbs. Trainers to watch: M Tompkins (won 2008), M Johnston (won 2005).
FRIDAY - 28TH MAY
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(6.40) 1m 2f H/cap for Lady Amat Riders (0%): Race run only 4 times before but historically a tricky opener for the card. Heighest weight carried to date has been 10st 5lbs. Past winners all aged 4-6 years. -
(7.10) 6f Maiden for 2yo (11%): 5/9 winners were making their racecourse debuts whilst those who had won before all finished 6th or better on their last race. Only 1/9 winners had odds greater than 7/1. Trainers to watch: M Channon (won 2006 & 2001), B Hills (2005) and K Ryan (2002). -
(7.40) 5f H/cap for 3yo (14%): Generally a trappy handicap but field this year is much smaller than usual! Past winners all 4th or better on last run (within 22 days). -
(8.10) 1m 6f H/cap (14%): Past winners were all aged 4-5 years and no past winner had raced more than twice in current season. Trainer to watch: I Williams (won 2009). -
(8.40) 1m Maiden (40%): All past winners were 3yo. Trainer to watch: L Cumani (won 2007). -
(9.10) 1m 4f Maiden (50%): Past winners all aged 3 years. All winners finished 4th or better on at least one of last two runs. Trainers to watch: M Jarvis (won 2005) & M Johnston
SATURDAY 22ND MAY
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(2.30) 1m H/cap (30%): The last 9 winners all had odds of 6/1 or shorter so it may pay to watch the top three or four in the betting market. Also the last 9 winners had all finished 1st/2nd on at least one of last two races. Trainers to watch: R Fahey (won 2006), M Channon (2004) & M Johnston (2000). -
(3.00) Gr 2 Temple Stakes: The race has only been run here for 2 years (previously at sandown) thus past trends and not comsidered appropriate yet. -
(3.30) 6f Listed Stakes (20%): Oldest winenr of the race aged 5yrs with 3/4yo having best record with 4/10 wins for both age groups. 8/10 winners finished 6th or better on last run with only one past winner making its seasonal re-appearance in the race. Trainers to watch E McMahon (won 2007) & M Jarvis (won 2001). -
(4.40) 1m Handicap (0%): Only run 5 times before but favourites have been unlucky so far with all winners odds being 5/1 or longer. All winners had last run within 21 days. Trainer to watch: R Fahey (won 2006). -
(5.15) 7f H/cap (0%): Another fairly new race, run justy 4 times before, with again no winning favourite seen. All winners so far had finished 3rd or better on their last run. Trainer to watch: M Johnston (won 2007).
FRIDAY 21ST MAY
No race tonight has been run for 3 years or more.
THURSDAY MAY 20TH
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(2.50) 1m 2f H/cap (16%): Only run 6 times before with all winners to date aged 4/5 years.Lowest weight carried by past winners was 8st 9lbs. Trainer to watch: I Williams (won 2008). -
(3.25) 1m H/cap (20%): 4yo are the preferred age group providing 6/10 winners in the race. 7/10 winners had also won on one of last two races. -
(5.05) 1m 4f Maiden (80%): All 5 previous winners had finished 2nd/3rd on at least one of last two races and all winners were also aged 3 years. Trainer to watch: R Charlton (won 2006).
SATURDAY 8TH MAY 2.00 Race (20%): Ordnance Row was 2nd in race last year and Welsh Emperor 6th . Oldest past winner aged 7 years with most winners aged 4-6 years. Trainers to watch: R Hannon (won 2002 & 2004) and T Tate (won 2005 with Welsh Emperor). 2.30 Race (33%): With few of the runners having raced before it may be best to look at the trainers with M Jarvis, J Gosden & K Ryan all good whilst M Al Zarooni is a new trainer for the wealthy sheiks and could prove to be good - although as blues followers know money doesnft always buy success. 3.00 Race (12%): In such a big field perhaps its worth picking two out in this and splitting the stakes? Elzahaan won the race last year beating Green Mile (who travels from Ireland to run today) and the pair remain closely handicapped. Trainers to watch: F Murphy (won 2009), P Hobbs (won 2008 & 2002) & D Pipe (won 2007 - but same stable won in 2005 & 2006 ino father M Pipe). 3.35 Race (25%): Another big field where again two selections may be worthwhile. In this race 8/10 past winners had a 1st/2nd place on either of last two runs. Oldest past winner aged 7 years. Ellerslie Tom was 2nd in the race last year and seems to have been aimed specifically at this race again after a long lay off. The top two in the race appear to have too much weight to carry based on past results. Trainers to watch: JH Johnson (won 2005), Mrs J Harrington (2004), Ms V Williams (2001). 4.10 Race (50%): (Trainer) P Nicholls won the race in 2009. 4.45 Race (30%): Horses aged 4/5 years have won 7/10 races since 2000. Only 1/10 winners had won without running before this season with all others having run in the last 44 days. Redford finished 4th in the race last year so itfs interesting that the horsefs new trainer is trying again to win this race given that it has yet to win over this distance.
EASTER SATURDAY
Five races today have been run at least three times before - they are:
(2.20) 2m H/cap Hurdle (0%): All 5 previous winners were aged between 5-7 years. Highest weight carried was 11st 9lbs. All rested at least 10 days since last run. Trainer to watch: GL Moore (won 2007).
(4.05) 3m4f H/cap Chase (20%): Again just 5 previous winners - all of which finished 6th or better on their last completed race. Ages of past winners all between 6-8 years. All were rested at least 12 days since last run. Weights carried by winners varied between 10st 1lb and 11st 11lbs.
(4.35) 2m4f Nov H/cap Hurdle (0%): So far , in 5 previous runnings, this has proved to be a tricky race with all winners having SP's of 8-1 or greater. Previous winners all aged between 5-7 years and all rested between 21-46 days since last run. Weights carried by winners has ranged between 10st 4lbs and 11st 6lbs. Trainer to watch: H Daly (won 2008).
(5.10) 2m4f H/cap Hurdle (40%): Lower weighted horses carrying 11st 10lbs or less have fared best in this race. 6yo horses have won 3/5 previous runnings with all aged between 6-10 years. All rested at least 25 days since last run. Trainer to watch: D McCain Jr (won 2008 with Peters Star who runs again today).
(5.45) 2m NH Flat Race (33%): Smallest field since 2001 has been 12 runners so racecourse will be disappointed with this turnout. All past winners were maidens with 6/9 winners making their racecourse debuts.
WEDNESDAY 24TH MARCH
Only two races today have been run at least 3 times before. They are:
(2.40) 2m H/cap Hurdle (25%): All four past winenrs had won at least one of their last four races. Longest period since a run was 90 days. 5yo is the preferred age group with three wins - other winner aged 4yo.
(4.25) 2m4f H/cap Hurdle (66%): All three winners finished 3rd or better on at least one of last two races. All were well backed at odds of 6/1 or shorter. The jockeys riding the three winners were all conditionals claiming a weight allowance of 5lbs or more. A run within last 14-72 days seen for all winners. Trainers to watch: D McCain Jr (won 2008) and Mrs S Smith (2005).
SATURDAY 20TH FEB
(1.55) 2m Juv Nov Hurdle (86%): Race has an excellent record for favourites with all past winners at SP's of 5/1 or shorter. All had finished 1st/2nd on last start having been rested at least 13 days. Trainer to watch: Ms V Williams (won 2009).
(2.30) 3m1f Hurdle (Gr2) (50%): Previously run as Rendlesham Hurdle and races run at kempton pre 2006 are ignored in these comments. So of the four races run at Haydock all winners were aged 6yrs or older and all had finished 5th or better on last run. Trainer to watch: Ms E Lavelle (won 2007).
(3.00) 3m1f Nov Hurdle (Gr2) (56%): Only one past winner had odds greater than 9/4. Six of the seven past winners won their last start with the other finishing 3rd. All last ran some 14-28 days earlier. 6yo have the best record with 4/7 wins. Trainer to watch: JH Johnson (won 2004 & 2005).
(3.35) Blue Sq Gld Cup (Gr3 H/cap Chase) over 3m4f (11%): A weak race for favourites with all winners since 2003 at odds of 17/2 or greater. Oldest winner seen at 11yrs. Of the last 9 winners 6 won last race with rest placed 2nd/3rd LTO. All rested at least 14 days since last run. rainers to watch: N Twiston-Davies (won 2001) and Mrs S Smith (won 2000).
(4.10) 3m1f H/cap Hurdle (30%): Trainer Jonjo O'Neill has an excellent 4 wins in this race although he has never won in consecutive years and all were aged between 6-8 years which tends to go against Al Co today. Highest winning weight seen is 11st 1olbs whilst lowly weighted horses do seem to fare slightly better in this race. Trainers to watch: J O'Neill (won in 2002, 2004, 2006 & 2009) J Old (won 2001).
(4.45) 2m4f Nov H/cap Chase (0%): Only run 4 times at current trip with all past winners 6/1 or longer. All had finished 4th or better on last completed race having last run some 23-47 days earlier. Past winners all carried between 10st 6lbs and 11st 5lbs. Trainers to watch: P Webber (won 2006).
(5.15) 3m Hunter Chase (25%): If we ignore point to point form we can see that all past four winners had finished 4th or better on their last completed start over NH rules and had been rested at least 20 days since last run. One for the PTP followers really and I shall be on the way home from Haydock whilst this is taking place!
SATURDAY JANUARY 23RD
Well its good to be racing again after the weather problems of late although some of tomorrows fields are smaller than ideal although all of the four runner races look quite competitive still. Here are the details for each of the races which have been run at least 3 times before - the figure in brackets after the race name is the favourite's past record in the race expressed as a percentage. Trainers who have won the race before will also be listed where they have a declared runner at the overnight stage.
(1.10) 2m+ Gr 2 Novices Hurdle (50%): Previously run at Wetherby with only last 4 races run at Haydock included. All past winners had won at least one of last two races. All also last ran some 21-43 days earlier. Oldest past winner aged 7 yrs. Trainer to watch: N Henderson (won 2007).
(1.45) 3m4f Handicap Chase (0%): Race previuosly run in December prior to 2009 thus comments re ages of winners adjusted to reflect this change. 8 & 10 y o horses are slightly preferred age group with 3/10 wins each. Oldest winners aged 11 yrs. Winners weights have ranged from 10st 5lbs to 11st 12lbs. All past winners finished 5th or better on their last completed race. Very poor race for favourites with SP's of winners ranging from 4/1 to 16/1. All told it looks a competitive race with only a few runners seeming out of contention. Trainers to watch: Mrs SJ Smith (won 2003 & 2009), PJ Hobbs (won 2005), CJ Mann (2004) and N Twiston-Davies (2000).
(2.20) 2m4f Gr 2 Novices Chase (66%): Race only run three times in current format. All three past winners had run four times in current season winning at least once and finishing no worse than 2nd on last outing. Longest winning SP so far has been 11/4. Oldest past winner aged 8 yrs. Trainer to watch: A King (won 2007).
(2.55) 2m+ Gr 2 Hurdle (63%): Whilst billed as a Champion Hurdle Trial we have to go back to 1994 (Flakey Dove) to find the last winner who also went on to win at Cheltenham in the same year so be wary if thinking of backing the winner tomorrow ante post for the festival! All past winners finished 4th or better on their last completed outing and all had odds of 7/1 or shorter. 5/8 winners had two previous races in current season with only 1/8 having a single race this term. Trainers to watch: NJ Henderson (2007 with Afsoun), JM Jefferson (2000).
(3.30) 2m Gr2 Handicap Chase (12%): All past winners aged between 8-10 years with 8 y o having the best record with 4/8 wins. Only one of the last eight winners finished worse than 4th on last completed run. All had run within the last 42 days and had at least two runs in current season. Trainers to watch: Mrs SJ Smith (won 2000 & 2004), D McCain jr ( 2009 with Cloudy Lane), Ms V Williams ( 2007), JH Johnson (2005).
(4.00) 2m4f Novice Hurdle (50%): Six of the eight past winners went off at odds of 4/1 or shorter. All past winners had finished at least 3rd on one of last three races under NH rules. All had also last run within 84 days. 6 and 7 y o are the preferred age group. Trainers to watch: Mrs SJ Smith (won 2003), J O'Neill (2002).
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