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CHELTENHAM PADDY POWER MEETING
This meeting is seen by many as the start of the ‘serious’ jumps season hence is well worth putting under the microscope!
FRIDAY 3M 1F H/cap Chase for Amateur Riders (23%); The last three winners of the race were all Irish trained and well supported at odds of 6/1 to 15/2. Most winners had a fair run (on last completed race) finishing 6th or better. All but one winner carried 10st 11lbs or greater. 2 Mile Gr 2 ‘Sharp’ Novice Hurdle (20%); P Nicholls & P Hobbs have had two wins each in this event. 4&5yo have the best record with 9/10 wins with 6yo winning the other race. The last 9 winners finished 4th or better on last completed run. 3 Mile Graduation Chase (16%); A relatively new race first run in 2006. P Nicholls/R Walsh have already made a mark winning two of these races to date (both 7/4 or shotrer in the betting). Interestingly all three past winners finished no better than 5th on their last outing. 3M 7F Cross Country Chase (20%); Enda Bolger has had 4 wins in this specialist event with 6/10 winners trained in Ireland. Several dual/triple winners seen in past e.g. McGregor The Third, Lindens Lotto and Spot The Difference(4). 8/10 winners had a prep race 10-27 days earlier. Oldest winner so far aged 14 yrs. 2M 5F H/cap Hurdle for Conditional Jockeys (15%); Expect large field and often a long priced winner – five of last ten had odds between 20-1 & 50-1. Race has seen 5 Irish trained winners from the last ten renewals. 2M 4F Nov Chase (30%); N Henderson and P Nicholls have 2 wins each in this race. Again form horses to be followed with all being 4th or better on last completed run with last three winners winning only start of current season. SATURDAY 2M Gr 2 Juvenile Hurdle for 3yo only (40%); A King is the leading trainer in the race with 2 wins. Apart from the unraced Don Fernando all others were 1st/2nd on last outing (6/10 won LTO). 3 Miles+ Novice Chase (40%); N Twiston-davies is the leading trainer with 2 wins although Irish trained horses often do well with 3 wins since 2000. A 1st/2nd place LTO was seen with all winners since 2000. 3M 4F H/cap Chase (23%); It tends to pay to concentrate on fancied runners as 9/10 winners had SP’s of 9/1 or shorter. All but two finished 6th or better on last completed run. 8/10 winners carried 10st 13lbs or lower. 2M 4F Gr 3 Paddy Power H/cap Chase (40%); 9/10 winners had a 1st/2nd place in at least one of last two outings and only one finished worse than 4th on last completed outing. Highest winning weight 11st 9lbs. The last 6 winners were all aged 6/7 years. 3M 2F H/cap Hurdle (30%); Form horses should again be followed with all winners being 4th or better on last completed run and 9/10 also winning at least one of last two races. Lower weighted horses fare best with those carrying 10st 10lbs or less taking 8/10 races. 2M Nov H/Cap Hurdle (63%): A good strike rates for favourites considering this is a handicap race. All but one past winners in form finishing 4th or better LTO. A Martin & J J O'Neill are leading trainers on 2 wins each albeit there have been 4 Irish trained winners in the race since 1999. 5yo is preferred age group with 6/10 wins. SUNDAY 2M Gr 2 ‘November’ Nov Chase (60%); P Nicholls has trained 4 winners since 1999. 7/10 winners won LTO. All last ran some 19-52 days earlier. 2M H/cap Chase (10%); P Nicholls is leading trainer with 2 wins since 2003. Often quite an open race despite a relatively small field. Last three winners were making their seasonal debuts. 2M (Gr 3) ‘Greatwood’ H/cap Hurdle (35%); P Hobbs is the leading trainer with 2 wins with there being two Irish trained winners also. Preferred age group is 5yo with 7/10 wins. All but one finished 4th or better LTO and similarly 9/10 had a 1st/2nd place on at least one of last two outings. 2M 5F H/cap Hurdle (20%); Irish trained raiders have pocketed 3 wins in last 8 years. In form horses fare best in general with 8/10 winners finishing 1st/2nd on at least one of their last two outings. 5&6yo have between them won 9/10 races with 5yo faring slightly better on 6 wins. 2M 5F Nov Hurdle (23%); I Williams is the leading trainer on 2 wins. Apart from the 2004 winner who finished 4th LTO the rest finished 1st/2nd on last completed outing - 7/10 winning LTO. Whilst favourites fare moderately this is a race to follow the money again as all had SP’s of 7/1 or shorter. All last raced some 15-64 days earlier so race fitness appears critical. 2Mile NH Flat Race (33%); J J O'Neill is leading trainer with two wins. There were also 4 Irish trained winners since 2001. In its 9 runnings this race has seen 2 unraced winners (includes Best Mate in 1999) with rest having finished 1st/2nd on last two starts. Last 8 winners all well backed at 15/2 or shorter. Preferred age group is 4yo with 6/9 wins with other winners all aged 6yrs.   |
