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YORK EBOR MEETING - 10 YEAR TRENDS
The following notes may help readers to draw up short lists for the races in this year's major Northern flat meeting. The race order is as scheduled for 2010 and after each race name/detail a figure in brackets represents the favourites win percentage record in the race. References to draw assumes Low/Middle/High (L;M;H) split into three equal parts based on size of field with bias rating shown as a percentage.
Whilst 2008's meeting was lost at York details of the re-scheduled Group races etc have been included, other than for draw purposes.
5 FURL H’CAP (n/a); New race in 2007.
7 FURL ACOMB STKS (LISTED) for 2YO. (44%): Most winners had raced only once/twice and all finished 3rd or better LTO (7/9 actually won) in the last 15-41 days - no past winner had finished worse than 3rd on any of its runs. M Johnston,is the leading trainer with two wins - both had finished 1st/2nd on last run and were well backed at 5/2 or shorter. Draw L11%;M55%;H33%.
1M 4F GREAT VOLTIGEUR STKS (Group 2) (20%): A race dominated by key stables - M Stoute (winners had finished 1st/2nd LTO), AP O'Brien (winners had all raced within the last 60 days) & J Gosden (both had last run 40 days earlier) have 2 wins each. Only two past winners finished worse than 4th LTO - being the last two winners of the race! Draw No advantage seen.
1M 2F JUDDAMONTE INTERNATIONAL STKS (Group 1) (60%): The Godolphin (Suroor) and O'Brien yards are the ones to watch with 2 wins each - of these the Suroor winners were both ridden by L Dettori and were backed down to 3/1 or less whilst the O'Brien winners both had at least three consecutive wins before this race. Oldest winner since 1986 was aged 5 years. The favourites record here is solid with all winners having SP's of 8/1 or shorter. Draw L22%;M55%;H22%.
6F NURSERY H/CAP (21%): Only run seven times in present format. T Easterby is leading trainer with two wins - both of which had finished 6th or better on last run and carried 8st 13lbs. Another common trend seen is a last run 3-21 days earlier. Draw L14%;M86%
1M 2F H/CAP (44 %): M Stoute is the leading trainer having won this event 3 times - all had finished 5th or better on their last run and carried between 8st 13lbs and 9st 2lbs. All winners carried between 8st 7lbs and 9st 2lbs. Last 9 winners all had a 4th place or better from either of last two outings with a last run in last 11-61 days. 4yo is the prefefrred age group with 5/9 wins. Draw L45%;M22%;H33%.
6F ST LEGER YEARLING STKS FOR 2YO (50%); Run at York for the first time in 2006 having previously been run at Doncaster - although run at Newmarket in 2008 when York was flooded. B Meehan is the leading trainer with 3 of the last 8 winners to his name - all of which had finished 5th or better on their last two runs. H Candy & T Easterby runners also merit respect with two winners a piece - the Candy runners had run just two times before, winning at least once, whilst the Easterby winners had both won their last two races. All winners finished 5th or better LTO (in last 12-44 days) and had finished 1st/2nd in either of last three starts. Draw L25%;M50%;H25%.
6F LOWTHER STAKES for 2YO (Group 2) (40%): M Channon is the leading trainer with 3 winners. A 1st/2nd/3rd place on either of last two starts is an essential form figure with all also last running within the previous 6-64 days. Draw L11%;M55%;H33%.
1M H/CAP (22%): M Stoute & B Hills have trained 2 winners each in the race. Highest weight carried by winners since 2001 was 9st 7lbs. Younger horses aged 3 or 4 yrs have best record with 9/9 wins. Draw L56%;M44%;
1M 4F YORKSHIRE OAKS (Group 1) (40%): M Stoute is again the leading trainer (4 wins). The Stoute yard has not won the race since 2004 however - all were very well backed at odds of 7/2 or shorter. The younger fillies (3yo) have the best record with 5 wins with the oldest winner aged 5yrs. All but one winner finished in first three LTO racing in last 17-62 days. Apart from the shock Italian raider in 2001 (Super Tansa) all winners had SP's of 13/2 or shorter. Draw L11%;M55%;H33%.
1M 4F GALTRES STKS (Listed) (17%): L Cumani dominated the race in the 1990's (8 wins) and J Oxx has partly taken over this mantle in the current decade with 3 wins so far - all of the stable's winners had finished 2nd on their last run and were well backed here at 7/2 or shorter. A run of 6th or better LTO is also an essential form guide. 3yo horses have won 6 of the last 9 races with the others going to 4yo. Draw L44%;M44%;H12%
2M H'CAP (N/A); New race in 2009
1M 4F H/CAP (16%): Usually a trappy start to the day with last 6/9 latest winners having SP's of 10/1 to 50/1! The good news for punters is that3 of the last 4 winners were well backed at odds of 6/1 or shorter. There are relatively few trends in this race although a run within the last 10-46 days was seen with most winners. Also 5 of the last six winners all finished between 1st-4th on last run. Draw L11%;M55%;H33%. Trainers to watch: M Johnston (Won 2006 & 2009) with both winners sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter. M Stoute (2007 & 2010) both carried between 8st 13lbs & 9st 5lbs having finished 1st/2nd on at least one of last two runs. The Fonz tries for a double this year although since 1986 no other horse has managed this.
6F GIMCRACK STKS (Group 2) (20%): 7 of last 10 winners had raced no more than three times with a last run of 5th or better being essential. A last run some 19-52 days earlier was also a common factor. Draw L33%;M45%;H22%. Trainer to watch: W Haggas (won 2006 & 2010) with both being easy to back (odds 9/2 to 8/1) and having four or more previous runs finishing 5th or better in all of them.
1M 1F STRENSALL STKS (GROUP 3) (33%); Raced moved to this meeting from Sept fixture. S Bin Suroor is the leading trainer having won four times since 2003 - all of which were sent off at odds of 7/1 or shorter and being ridden by L Dettori. Well backed horses tend to fare well with longest SP seen at 8/1. Draw : L 33%; M33%; H33%.
5F NUNTHORPE STAKES (Group 1) (30%): The last 7 favourites have been beaten after 5 consecutive winning favourites with a 100/1 shock winner (Sole Power) in 2010. R Bastiman is the leading trainer with 2 wins albeit dual winner Borderlescott won in 2008 when the race was moved to Newmarket . Just two juvenile winners of the race in the last 25 years. Last run of winner usually within 14-65 days. Draw L55%;M11%;H33%.
7F MAIDEN FOR 2YO (N/A) New Race in 2010.
7F FILLIES HANDICAP (N/A): New Race in 2011
7F CITY OF YORK STKS (Listed) (22%): 3 & 4yo have best record with 8/10 wins - includes DH in 2009 when both aged 4 yrs . W Haggas, M Stoute & A Balding are leading trainers with two winners each . A last run 8-56 days earlier was also a common feature. Draw L33%;M45%;H22%.
1M 6F MELROSE H/CAP FOR 3YO (27%): Many horses will be trying the trip for the first time which no doubt adds to the weakIsh reacord of the favourites. J Dunlop/L Cumani are the leading trainers with 2 wins each - the Dunlop winners had both finished 5th or better on their last run and carried 9st or more whilst the Cumani runners also both finished 5th or better LTO and were sent off as race favourites. A last run within the last 65 days was also a common feature. A 1st/2nd place in at least one of the last three outings is an essential form guide. Draw L67%;M33%;H0%.
2 MILE LONSDALE CUP (Group 2) (44%): Past winners often last ran in the Goodwood Cup. Only one winner had finished worse than 6th in last race. Draw L33%;M45%;H22%.
1M 6F EBOR H/CAP (10%): Interestingly for a long distance race the draw appears a key factor with 7/9 York* winners coming out of the highest third of the stalls (*Run at Newbury in 2008). No past winner aged older than 6yo with 5yo having the best record with 6/10 wins. Besides being a weak race for favourite backers the race has recently provided several surprise winners with odds of 25/1 (twice) and 100/1 seen in the last five renewals. All winners carried 9st 4lbs or less. All last raced 13-60 days before. Draw L11%;M11%;H78%.
5F ROSES STKS for 2YO (Listed) (11%): 8/9 past winners had run at least three times before. Apart fron 2009 all were well backed at 17/2 or shorter. No past winner had been rested for more than 61 days since its last run. Draw: l33%; M33%; H33%.
5F H/CAP (16%): Another fairly trappy handicap to close the final day. D Nicholls & J Given are leading trainers with 2 wins each - the Nicholls winners had both run 19 days earlier and came out of one of the highest two stalls whilst the Given yard's winners both carried 8st 6lbs or less and finished 6th or better in their last race. A last run of 6th or better is a common trend in 8/9 winners. Draw L44%;M12%;H44%.
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